以线性和非线性需求结合方式建立了以满足任务需要为条件的海警大型舰艇基本需求组合模型,预测计算了多个样本国海警大型舰艇基本需求数,结果表明该模型有一定的实用性。据此对中国海警大型舰艇基本需求进行预测,预测结果可对中国海警大型舰艇发展规划提供参考。
Combination model of the basic requirement for large patrol ships (LPSs) of coast guard is established with linear and nonlinear methods based on the mission, and the number of basic requirement of LPSs of several samples were forecasted, the results show that the model is practical. In view of the above, this paper obtains a result about the basic requirement of China Coast Guard (CCG), and this maybe useful for research and development of CCG's LPSs.
2017,(): 183-188 收稿日期:2016-12-21
DOI:10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2017.11.035
分类号:TN96
基金项目:全国教育科学“十二五”规划2015年度教育部重点课题资助项目(DIA150308)
作者简介:赵伟东(1965-),男,教授,主要从事海警建设与发展、海警舰艇装备、海上执法等研究工作
参考文献:
[1] 薛桂芳. 《联合国海洋法公约》体制下维护我国海洋权益的对策建议[J]. 中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版), 2005(6), 13.
XUE Gui-fang. Study on countermeasures of safeguard China's maritime rights and interests under the system of UNCLOS [J]. Journal of Ocean University of China (Social Science Edition), 2005(6), 13.
[2] U.S. Coast Guard. The U.S. Coast Guard strategy for maritime safety, security, and stewardship [R]. Washington D.C.: U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters, 2007,19(1): 18-19.
[3] Policy Evaluation and Public Ralations Office. JCG-Keeping the oceans safe and enjoyable for future generations [R]. Japan Coast Guard, 2013(3):12-13.
[4] Korea Coast Guard 2012 White Paper [R]. Korea Coast Guard, 2013,40-68.
[5] 赵伟东, 俞海,等. 北太平洋五国海警实力透视[M]. 北京:国防大学出版社, 2013, 1-5.
ZHAO Wei-dong, YU Hai, etal Coast guard strength perspective of the five countries of the North Pacific [M]. Beijing: National Defense University Press, 2013, 1-5.
[6] 杨焕海. 人才需求组合预测的建模与仿真分析[J]. 计算机仿真, 2013, 30(10), 253-256.
YANG Huan-hai. Intelligent modeling and simulation analysis for talent demand forecasting[J]. Computer Simulation, 2013, 30(10), 253-256.
[7] 任务面积均按各国宣称的专属经济区面积确定. Exclusive economic zone [EB/DB]. WIKIPEDIA, (2015-03-04)[2015-05-12]. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone.
[8] Equipment of the United States Coast Guard [DB/OL]. Wikipedia. (2016-06-28)[2016-08-29]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipment_of_the_United_States_Coast_Guard. Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB-List of Current Ships 2016[EB/OL]. RussianShips.info. (2016-08-17)[2016-10-15]. http://russianships.info/eng/coastguard/. 海上保安庁の装備品一覧[DB/OL]. ウィキペディア. (2016-10-05)[2016-10-15]. https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E4%B8%8A%E4%BF%9D%E5%AE%89%E5%BA%81%E3%81%AE%E8%A3%85%E5%82%99%E5%93%81%E4%B8%80%E8%A6%A7. Korea Coast Guard [DB/OL]. Wikipedia. (2016-08-15)[2016-09-04]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea_Coast_Guard. Indian Coast Guard [DB/OL]. Wikipedia. (2016-09-10)[2016-09-12]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Coast_Guard. Turkish Coast Guard [DB/OL]. Wikipedia. (2016-08-17)[2016-09-12]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Coast_Guard. Norwegian Coast Guard [DB/OL]. Wikipedia. (2016-05-16)[2016-09-12]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Coast_Guard. Vietnam Coast Guard[DB/OL]. Wikipedia. (2016-08-25)[2016-08-31]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_Coast_Guard#Equipment.
[9] Office of National Drug Control Policy. Transit Zone Operation [EB/OL]. [2015-05-13]. https://www.whitehouse.gov/ondcp/transit-tone-operations/.
[10] The Coast Guard Aviation Association. A History of Coast Guard Aviation [EB/OL]. [2015-05-13]. http://uscgaviationhistory.aoptero.org/history05.html/.
[11] United States Coast Guard. 2013 White Paper on Resourcing the U.S. Coast Guard [R]. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Coast Guard headquarters, director of strategic management and doctrine, 2013, 23-25.
[12] United States Coast Guard. Arctic Strategy [R]. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Coast Guard headquarters, 2013.
[13] 张耀光, 王艳. 韩国海洋资源开发的现状、特征及今后展望[J]. 世界地理研究, 2000, 9(3), 29-33.
ZHANG Yao-guang, WANG Yan. The present situation, characteristics and prospects of marine resource development in South Korea[J]. Word Regional Studies, 2000, 9(3), 29-33.
[14] 平成27年度海上保安庁関係補正予算の概要[R/OL]. 海上保安庁. (2015-12-17)[2016-10-15].http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/soubi-yosan/yosan/kaihoyosan.html.
Heisei 27 Annual Supplementary Budget Summary of Japan Coast Guard[R/OL]. Japan Coast Guard. (2015-12-17)[2016-10-15]. http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/soubi-yosan/yosan/kaihoyosan.html.
[15] 平成28年度海上保安庁関係予算決定概要[R/OL]. 海上保安庁. (2016-01-19)[2016-10-15].http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/soubi-yosan/yosan/kaihoyosan.html.
Heisei 28 Annual Budget Summary of Japan Coast Guard[R/OL]. Japan Coast Guard. (2016-01-19)[2016-10-15]. http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/soubi-yosan/yosan/ kaihoyosan.html.
[16] RYAN D. Martinson, Takuya Shimodaira. Curing China's Elephantiasis of the Fleet [J]. China Brief, Jamestown Foundation. 2015, 15(10).