国际海事组织（IMO）第2代完整稳性规则预计将于2019年定稿，目前仍处于大量样船的计算与完善阶段。处于横风横浪联合作用下产生大幅横摇甚至倾覆的瘫船状态，被公认是相对危险的稳性失效模式。因此基于瘫船稳性第2层衡准，针对2艘集装箱船，利用分段线性化方法得到横摇运动方程的解析解，并据此进行倾覆概率的计算。在样船计算的基础上同局部线性化结果进行对比，并对影响倾覆概率的敏感性因素进行分析：延长暴露时间、高峰宽频的波浪谱、选择GZ曲线顶点为分段分界点等均能提高衡准的安全裕度。在此计算分析的基础上为完善IMO瘫船稳性衡准的制定提供技术支撑。
IMO (International Maritime Organization) second generation intact stability criteria are expected to be finalized in 2019, while nowadays, numbers of sample ships are calculated for its perfection. Dead-ship condition, which means a ship exposed to the combination of beam wave and wind will roll intensely and even capsize, is recognized as a relatively dangerous stability failure mode. Targeting at two containerships, this paper solves the rolling equation and gets its analytical results by means of piecewise linearization method based on the Level 2's criterion of dead-ship stability, as a result, the capsizing probability can be calculated. Then comparison with local linearization method is conducted based on the sample ships' analysis. The following three sensible factors can impact the capsizing probability significantly:the extended exposure time, choosing wave spectra with high peak and broad frequency range, choosing the peak of GZ curve as demarcation point are all able to raise the safety margin. The calculation and analysis mentioned above are capable of providing the technical supports for the constitution's improvement of IMO dead-ship's stability criteria.
2018,40(7): 22-28 收稿日期：2017-01-13
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2018.07.005
分类号：U661.32
基金项目：财政部、教育部重大科研专项资助项目（KSHIP）（GKZY010004）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（5157914）
作者简介：马骋远(1992-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为波浪中船舶稳性与安全性设计
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