在航行条件日益复杂的情况下，船舶发生溢油事故的可能性随之提升，亟需采用溢油评估模型对溢油事故的危险性进行准确预测，为溢油事故预报和风险防控提供预测依据。在船舶溢油评估中，要确定引发事故的各项因素，对各项因素进行重新排序，为构建评估模型提供研究依据。本文分析船舶溢油动力过程，建立3种动态过程的船舶溢油评估模型，确定溢油评估和指标体系，采用Matlab仿真平台验证船舶溢油评估模型的有效性。实验结果表明，评估模型能够对溢油损失和溢油面积作出较为准确的评估。
In the case of increasingly complex navigation conditions, the possibility of oil spill accidents on ships increases accordingly. It is urgent to use oil spill assessment models to accurately predict the risk of oil spill accidents. Provide forecast basis. In the ship oil spill assessment, it is necessary to determine the factors that cause the accident, reorder the factors, and provide a research basis for the construction of the assessment model. This paper analyzes the dynamic process of ship oil spill, establishes three dynamic process ship oil spill evaluation models, determines the oil spill evaluation and index system, and uses the Matlab simulation platform to verify the effectiveness of the ship oil spill evaluation model. A more accurate assessment of oil loss and oil spill area is made.
2022,44(17): 174-177 收稿日期：2022-06-04
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2022.17.036
分类号：U665
基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（62133014）
作者简介：董洁(1969-)，女，硕士，副教授，研究方向为大数据挖掘及数据推荐
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