深远海溢油回收作业安全依赖于人员、管理、设备和环境因素交互约束，为了系统性揭示深远海溢油回收作业风险生产和发生发展过程，本文提出一种多层模糊变权Petri网模型。首先，在分层考虑事故发展过程的基础上，添加变权因素，将事故发展过程中的各信息元素进行动态量化；然后，推导出最有可能导致深远海溢油回收作业失败的风险演化路径和初始原因。最后，基于演化路径提供针对性管控策略。本文研究成果可为其他类型的深远海救助作业风险评估提供借鉴。
The safety of deep-sea oil recovery operation depends on the interactive constraints of personnel, management, equipment and environmental factors. In order to systematically reveal the risk production and development process of deep-sea oil recovery operation, this paper proposes a multi-layer variable weight fuzzy petri nets model. First, on the basis of considering the accident development process by layers, variable weight factors are added to dynamically quantify the information in the accident development process. Then, the risk evolution path and initial cause most likely to the failure of deep-sea oil spill recovery operations are derived. Finally, it provides targeted control strategies based on the evolutionary path, which also provides a useful reference for the risk assessment of other types of deep-sea operations.
2022,44(20): 83-87 收稿日期：2022-06-14
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2022.20.016
分类号：U676
基金项目：高技术船舶科研资助项目(MC-201902-C01，CBZ2N21-2)；国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(71901029)；北京市教委科技计划资助项目(KM202010017009)
作者简介：金浩(1986-)，男，博士，高级工程师。研究方向为安全风险辩识与评估
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