极地邮轮工作环境特殊，减摇鳍装置的选型需考虑抗低温、抗恶劣海况等在内的诸多因素，单凭主观判断很难选出最优的减摇鳍装置。为解决该问题，提出基于层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法(EWM)、三角模糊理论以及Dempster-Shafer(DS)证据融合的综合评价方法。首先构建环境适应性、装置性能等4个一级指标以及13个二级指标的选型评价指标模型，采用组合赋权法计算定性、定量指标权重；其次构建识别框架及模糊评语集，并邀请专家组对指标做出模糊评价，利用证据距离对DS证据合成策略做出改进，将修正后证据进行两两合成从而得到各方案二级指标mass函数。最后对选型方案进行综合评价，选出符合实际需求的最优减摇鳍装置。结果表明，该方法能充分考虑决策过程的不确定性，对极地邮轮减摇鳍装置选型起到科学决策的作用。
Due to the particularity of the working environment of polar cruise ships, the selection of the fin stabilizers should consider many factors including low temperature and harsh sea conditions, etc. The optimal fin stabilizer is difficult to be chosen only by subjective judgment. To solve the problem, a comprehensive evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-entropy weight method(EWM), triangle fuzzy theory and Dempster-Shafer(DS) evidence fusion was proposed. Firstly, Selection and evaluation index model was built, which included four first-level indicators and thirteen second-level indicators such as environmental adaptability and device performance, the weights of qualitative and quantitative indicators were calculated by combination weighting method. Secondly, the identification framework and fuzzy comment set were constructed and the fuzzy evaluation of the indicators was provided by the experts. The DS evidence synthesis strategy was improved by using evidence distance, and the mass function of the secondary indicators of each scheme was obtained by combining the modified evidence in pairs. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation of the selection scheme was carried out to select the optimal fin stabilizers that meets the actual needs. The results show that this method can fully consider the uncertainty of the decision-making process. It is helpful to the selection of fin stabilizers for polar cruise ships.
2023,45(5): 54-60 收稿日期：2021-12-23
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2023.05.010
分类号：U664.72
基金项目：工信部高技术船舶科研资助项目（MC-201918-C10）
作者简介：王谦(1998-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为轮机系统设计与性能分析
