船舶溢油事故不仅会造成经济损失，还会对海洋环境造成严重破坏。进行船舶溢油风险评估和预测，防止船舶溢油事故的发生具有重要意义。大量的统计数据表明，船舶溢油事故的发生与船舶因素、环境因素和人为因素等密切相关。因此，进行船舶溢油事故风险评估时必须要综合考虑多种因素的占比和概率。本文采用灰色理论技术建立船舶溢油风险评估模型，结合海域实测数据进行模型的修正，实现了海域内船舶溢油风险的评估和预测。
Ship oil spills will not only cause economic losses, but also cause serious damage to the marine environment, and it is of great significance to carry out ship oil spill risk assessment and prediction to prevent the occurrence of ship oil spills. A large number of statistical data show that the occurrence of ship oil spill accidents is closely related to ship factors, environmental factors and human factors, so the proportion and probability of multiple factors must be considered when conducting ship oil spill risk assessment. In this paper, the gray theory technology is used to establish the ship oil spill risk assessment model, and the model is modified by combining the measured data in the sea area, which preliminarily realizes the assessment and prediction of the oil spill risk of ships in the sea area.
2023,45(9): 75-78 收稿日期：2022-12-24
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2023.09.016
分类号：U621.25
基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（51879119）
作者简介：马峰(1980-),男,硕士,讲师,主要从事航海技术研究
