针对货运船舶特点和绿色技术使用情况，建立船舶多目标主尺度优化模型，确定主要的不确定性因素并拟合其概率分布情况，利用蒙特卡罗模拟法结合参数分析法进行不确定性优化论证，得到Pareto解集和最终优化结果，将该结果与采用NSGA-II算法得到的确定性优化论证结果进行对比。实例结果表明：考虑本文提到的不确定性因素下的船型论证基本不改变主尺度理论优选值，不确定性优化结果的各项指标较确定性优化更好且更能反映实际情况。当对货船有更高要求时，不确定性优化论证可能影响投资决策。
According to the characteristics of cargo ships and green technology, the paper establishes a multi-objective principal dimensions optimization model of ships, determines the principal uncertainty factors and fits their probability distributions. The uncertainty optimization demonstration is carried out by using the Monte Carlo simulation method combined with the parameter analysis method. The Pareto solution set and the final optimization result are obtained, and the result is compared with the deterministic optimization demonstration result obtained by the NSGA-II (non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II). Cases calculation shows that the ship demonstration, considering uncertainty factors mentioned in the paper, basically does not change the theoretical optimal value of the principal dimensions. The indicators of uncertain optimization results are better than those of deterministic optimization and can reflect the actual situation better. When there are higher requirements for cargo ships, the uncertainty optimization demonstration may affect investment decisions.
2023,45(17): 36-42 收稿日期：2022-03-01
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2023.17.007
分类号：U662
基金项目：工信部高技术船舶创新专项（103-42200012），三峡后续工作科研项目（SXHXGZ-2021-5）
作者简介：马瑜聪(1997-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为船舶数字化设计理论与方法
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