美国海军一直致力于开发更加精确的预报系统，其全球海洋环境预报系统近10年取得了长足的进步。全球大气预报系统更新为NAVGEM 2.0，分辨率得到进一步提升。海洋数据同化系统更新到改进型合成海洋剖面系统版本2，新增了同化海表面流场功能。全球海洋预报系统更新到3.5版本，提高了水平分辨率，新增了潮汐和引入新版本海冰模式。新开发了全球海气耦合预报系统，能够较好地预测大气海洋状况延伸期的变化。美国海军在业务预报系统方面的持续更新和提高，进一步保障其部队在海上的航行安全，为作战提供更好的海洋环境支持。
U.S. Navy has been committed to developing more accurate forecasting systems, and its global Marine environmental forecasting system has made great progress in the past 10 years. The Navy Global Environmental Model has been updated to version 2.0, and the resolution has been further improved. The marine data assimilation system has been updated to the Improved Synthetic Ocean Profile 2, and the assimilation function of sea surface flow field has been added. The Global Ocean Forecast System has been updated to version 3.5 with improved horizontal resolution, new tides and the introduction of a new version of the sea ice model. Navy-Earth System Prediction Capability has been developed, which includes two models of deterministic and ensemble forecasting, which can simulate the extensional changes of atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The U.S. Navy has made advances in forecasting systems to better support its naval operations at sea.
2024,46(20): 184-189 收稿日期：2023-12-10
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2024.20.034
分类号：P79
作者简介：张永垂(1982-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为海洋中尺度过程及其军事应用
参考文献：
[1] BURNETT W, HARPER S, PRELLER R, et al. Overview of operational ocean forecasting in the US Navy: Past, Present, and Future[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 24-31.
[2] METZGER E J, SMEDSTAD O M, THOPPIL P G, et al. US Navy operational global ocean and arctic ice prediction systems[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 32-43.
[3] ROWLEY C, MASK A. Regional and Coastal Prediction with the relocatable ocean nowcast/forecast system[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 44-55.
[4] ROGERS W E, DYKES J D, WITTMANN P A. US Navy global and regional wave modeling[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 56-67.
[5] JOLLIFF J K, LADNER S, CROUT R, et al. Forecasting the Ocean's optical environment using the biocast system[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 68-79.
[6] VEERAMONY J, ORZECH M D, EDWARDS K L, et al. Navy nearshore ocean prediction systems[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 80-91.
[7] ALLARD R, ROGERS E, MARTIN P, et al. The US Navy coupled ocean-wave prediction system[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 92-103.
[8] DOYLE J D, HODUR R M, CHEN S U E, et al. Tropical Cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 104-115.
[9] HOGAN T F, LIU M, RIDOUT J A, et al. The Navy global environmental model[J]. Oceanography, 2014, 27(3): 116-125.
[10] 朱亚平, 程周杰, 何锡玉. 美国海军海洋业务预报纵览[J]. 海洋预报, 2015, 32(5): 98-105.
ZHU Yaping, CHENG Zhoujie, HE Xiyu. Overview of US navy marine operations forecasting[J]. Ocean Forecast, 2015, 32(5): 98-105.
[11] 徐洋, 齐久成, 李清, 等. 美国海军业务化海洋预报系统综述[J]. 舰船科学技术, 2016, 38(9): 142-146.
XU Yang, QI Jiucheng, LI Qing, et al. Overview of the US navy's operational marine forecasting system[J]. Ship Science and Technology, 2016, 38(9): 142-146.
[12] 李茂林, 余向军, 李庆红. 美国海军业务化海洋预报系统发展历程及启示[J]. 舰船科学技术, 2021, 43(19): 181-185.
LI Maolin, YU Xiangjun, LI Qinghong. The development history and implications of the US navy's operational marine forecasting system[J]. Ship Science and Technology, 2021, 43(19): 181-185.
[13] 毛华斌, 吴园涛, 殷建平, 等. 海洋环境安全保障技术发展现状和展望[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2022, 37(7): 870-880.
MAO Huabin, WU Yuantao, YIN Jianping, et al. Current status and prospects of marine environmental security technology development[J]. Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2022, 37(7): 870-880.
[14] 张永垂, 陈诗尧, 王宁, 等. 全球业务化海洋预报系统进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2022, 37(4): 344-357.
ZHANG Yongchui, CHEN Shiyao, WANG Ning, et al. Progress of global operational ocean forecasting system[J]. Progress in Earth Science, 2022, 37(4): 344-357.
[15] XU L, ROSMOND T, DALEY R. Development of NAVDAS-AR: Formulation and initial tests of the linear problem[J]. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2005, 57(4): 546-559.
[16] STONE R E, REYNOLDS C A, DOYLE J D, et al. Atmospheric river reconnaissance observation impact in the Navy Global Forecast System[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2020, 148(2): 763-782.
[17] CHRISTOPHERSEN H, RUSTON B, BAKER N L. Assimilation of GNSS zenith total delay in NAVGEM[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2023, 128(3): e2022JD037502.
[18] HALLIWELL G R. Evaluation of vertical coordinate and vertical mixing algorithms in the HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2004, 7(3): 285-322.
[19] HUNKE E, LIPSCOMB W, JONES P, et al. CICE, the Los Alamos sea ice model [R]: Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2017.
[20] CUMMINGS J A. Operational multivariate ocean data assimilation[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: A journal of the atmospheric sciences, applied meteorology and physical oceanography, 2005, 131(13): 3583-3604.
[21] FOX D, TEAGUE W, BARRON C, et al. The modular ocean data assimilation system (MODAS)[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2002, 19(2): 240-252.
[22] HELBER R W, TOWNSEND T L, BARRON C N, et al. Validation test report for the Improved Synthetic Ocean Profile (ISOP) system, Part I: Synthetic profile methods and algorithm [J]. Naval Res Lab Rep NRL/MR/7320-13-9364, 2013.
[23] FUJII Y, KAMACHI M. Three-dimensional analysis of temperature and salinity in the equatorial Pacific using a variational method with vertical coupled temperature‐salinity empirical orthogonal function modes [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2003, 108(C9).
[24] FUJII Y, KAMACHI M. A reconstruction of observed profiles in the sea east of Japan using vertical coupled temperature-salinity EOF modes[J]. Journal of oceanography, 2003, 59: 173-186.
[25] HELBER R W, SMITH S R, JACOBS G A, et al. Ocean drifter velocity data assimilation, Part 1: Formulation and diagnostic results[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2023, 183: 102195.
[26] SMITH S R, HELBER R W, JACOBS G A, et al. Ocean drifter velocity data assimilation Part 2: Forecast validation[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2023, 185: 102260.
[27] BARTON N, METZGER E J, REYNOLDS C A, et al. The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: A new global coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice prediction system designed for daily to subseasonal forecasting[J]. Earth and Space science, 2021, 8(4): e2020EA001199.
[28] BARTON N, JANIGA M, MCLAY J, et al. Earth system prediction capability (ESPC) initial operational capability (IOC) ensemble system [J]. NRL Memorandum Report, 2019.
[29] 张永垂, 胡王江, 邵晨, 等. 美国海军海洋学业务体系概述[J]. 舰船科学技术, 2024, 46(1): 180-185.
ZHANG Yongchui, HU Wangjiang, SHAO Chen, et al. Overview of the US navy's oceanography business system[J]. Ship Science and Technology, 2024, 46(1): 180-185.
