油气运输船舶装载着易燃易爆的油气资源，一旦发生事故，将带来极其严重的后果，故而船舶航行风险预警的精准性至关重要。鉴于航道航行风险具有动态变化的特点，提出油气运输船舶航道航行风险实时预警方法。该方法综合考虑航道自然环境因素和航行行为因素，深入分析油气运输船舶航行状态，构建合理性与全面性俱佳的油气运输船舶航道航行风险指标体系。通过综合赋权法确定各指标综合权重，以体现指标重要性；利用正态云模型结合综合指标结果计算各指标与风险等级间的隶属度，进而评估航行风险等级并实施相应预警。测试结果表明，此方法不仅能够准确确定各个指标的综合权重，还能计算出各指标的最大隶属度结果，从而有效评估航行风险等级并完成相应等级的预警，为油气运输船舶的安全航行提供了有力保障。
Oil and gas transport ships carry flammable and explosive oil and gas resources. Once an accident occurs, it will bring extremely serious consequences. Therefore, the accuracy of ship navigation risk warning is crucial. Given the dynamic nature of navigation risks in oil and gas transport vessels, a real-time warning method for navigation risks in waterways is proposed. This method comprehensively considers the natural environmental factors and navigation behavior factors of the waterway, deeply analyzes the navigation status of oil and gas transport ships, and constructs a reasonable and comprehensive risk index system for oil and gas transport ship waterway navigation. Determine the comprehensive weight of each indicator through the comprehensive weighting method to reflect the importance of the indicators; Using the normal cloud model combined with comprehensive indicator results to calculate the membership degree between each indicator and the risk level, and then evaluate the navigation risk level and implement corresponding warnings. The test results show that this method can not only accurately determine the comprehensive weight of each indicator, but also calculate the maximum membership degree of each indicator, effectively evaluate the navigation risk level and complete the corresponding level of warning, providing strong guarantee for the safe navigation of oil and gas transport ships.
2025,47(3): 77-81 收稿日期：2024-12-11
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2025.03.013
分类号：U676
作者简介：周宁(1977-),男,博士,教授,研究方向为爆炸与冲击力学、油气爆炸安全、油气储运工程
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