为确保光纤通信系统稳定运行，设计舰船光纤通信系统的安全态势预测模型，以提升安全态势预测效果。离散化处理连续型舰船通信系统数据，组建离散型观测样本集合；通过隐马尔可夫模型，依据离散型观测样本集合，建立安全态势预测模型；利用Baum-Welch学习算法，确定安全态势预测模型参数；通过Viterbi算法，计算威胁维指数、运行维指数、脆弱维指数的概率向量；以转置矩阵与概率向量相乘的方式，得到安全态势预测结果。实验证明：该模型可有效离散化连续型数据，并确定安全态势预测模型参数；该模型可精准预测舰船光纤通信系统的安全态势。
In order to ensure the stable operation of the optical fiber communication system, the ship optical fiber communication system security situation prediction model is designed to improve the security situation prediction effect. The data of continuous ship communication system are discretized, and the discrete observation sample set is established. A security situation prediction model is established by using hidden Markov model and discrete observation sample set. Baum-Welch learning algorithm was used to determine the parameters of the security situation prediction model. The probability vector of threat dimension index, operation dimension index and vulnerability dimension index was calculated by Viterbi algorithm. The security situation prediction result is obtained by multiplying the transposed matrix with the probability vector. Experiments show that the model can discretize continuous data effectively and determine the parameters of the security situation prediction model. This model can accurately predict the security situation of ship optical fiber communication system.
2023,45(8): 154-157 收稿日期：2022-11-04
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2023.08.030
分类号：TN91
作者简介：李建(1982-),女,硕士,讲师,研究方向为电子信息通信
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